UK natural stone demand to 2030: where it comes from

The UK construction market has stopped contracting. Our UK Macroeconomic Outlook 2026–2030, the one KEYSTONE. publication that is free to read in full, puts the cycle in four numbers and points to where demand for natural stone will come from.

The cycle in four numbers

• +1.1%

  real GDP growth in 2026, rising to about 1.6% a year to 2030

• £725 bn

  ten-year public infrastructure pipeline

• +22%

  cumulative house-price growth to 2030

• +3.2%

  construction output, a year to 2029

Public capital is the floor

The £725 billion infrastructure commitment, spread over 2025–2035, is the largest single driver of stone demand in the UK. Indicatively, transport takes £220 billion, energy £175 billion, social infrastructure £130 billion, digital £80 billion, water £70 billion and other sectors £50 billion. Flagship projects include HS2, Sizewell C, the Heathrow expansion and the Lower Thames Crossing.

• Transport220
• Energy175
• Social130
• Digital80
• Water70
• Other50

Where stone wins and loses

• Public infrastructure+6.0%
• Premium residential, London and South East+5.5%
• Hotels and hospitality+3.0%
• Grade B/C offices−1.5%
• High-street retail−3.0%

Prime offices in Central London: stable to +1% a year. Four segments lead the cycle for premium stone; the weaker parts of the office and retail market will not. Premium residential finishes are the first to come back as house prices rise.

The full Outlook (27 pages) also covers inflation and the Bank Rate, housing, commercial real estate and construction output, with six recommendations for the stone industry. It is free with a KEYSTONE. account.

Source: KEYSTONE. UK Macroeconomic Outlook 2026–2030, from official UK statistics and the public infrastructure pipeline. Figures are projections, not forecasts of any single project.